Who is on First? Who is the DH? Who is Traded?
The performances of 2020 leave the Mets with some big questions for 2021
Despite COVID-19’s continued prevalence in many parts of the United States, MLB is planning to go about the 2021 regular season as if it were business as usual. As of now, it seems unlikely that we will see the DH return to the National League.
There have been rumors and speculation the entire offseason that the DH would be incorporated in both leagues. This has left some teams and players in limbo during this offseason.
The New York Mets are a team that dramatically improves at the plate if you incorporate the DH.
It allows for Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith to both get at-bats every single day, and you can split their time at first base. Without that option in play this year, what happens?
Naturally, the absence of the DH means something has to give between Pete and Dom (two of the Mets’ best offensive players). There are only a few outcomes within this problem being resolved and here they are:
Option (1) - Live with Dom and Nimmo playing out-of-position:
Starting a game with Dom in left field and Nimmo in center field definitely could set up for some rocky outings. Both are below-average defenders in those spots, but Dom has progressed in most defensive metrics for left field every year he has been with the club. This option depends on those two holding down the fort until you are able to make your final defensive substitutions late in games.
You could then put Albert Almora in center field, push Nimmo to left field, and have the option of moving Dom to first base or keeping Pete in the lineup based on the bullpen moves you are expecting.
Option (2) - Sign/Trade for a center fielder and play the hot hand at first base:
If you are able to obtain a center fielder then you’re going to fall into having Pete and Dom split time at first and Nimmo ends up in left field. Jackie Bradley Jr. is still on the market but it looks like he is going to go back to Boston.
No matter what, this outcome really relies on James McCann and Francisco Lindor producing at the plate. We have far more confidence in the latter than the former, but neither scenario is outside the realm of possiblity.
If you’re sitting Pete or Dom, that means Almora or a different defensive option is in center field. So you have a left fielder, a center fielder, and a first baseman all playing positions in which they are comfortable, but now you have two bats that are likely washes in the lineup with the center fielder and the pitcher’s spot.
If the additions the Mets made this offseason can pick up the slack for the weaker bats in the lineup then I don’t think this is such a bad compromise. Having the ability to bring Pete or Dom in to pinch hit is a luxury that should not be overlooked.
Option (3) - Trade either Alonso or Smith for a return that improves the lineup elsewhere in 2021:
This would be a very unpopular move for the fanbase. Alonso and Smith are both players who are held in very high regard for their abilities on the field and their contributions off of it.
One could argue that they have become better because of the competition each player poses for the position, but you will get a very strong return for either player.
Pete and Dom are both young players with team control attached to them who hit the hell out of the ball. If one of them goes on the trading block, a number of teams will make competitive offers.
If I am running the team then I am going to go with option (1). This gives you the best offensive lineup you could have and you can expect Dom to improve in left field with the addition of Lindor at shortstop.
On the other hand, if Dom becomes unplayable in left, then you could just go with option (2) as a backup. Option (2) gives you a great defensive lineup and a stronger bench. Options (1) and (2) also both maintain first base if either Pete or Dom gets hurt. Option (3) leaves a lot to the imagination for us to predict.
Is there a team that has enough assets to make the Mets a 2021 World Series favorite in return for Alonso or Smith? That means the team has to be able to give up a good and reliable starting pitcher, a starting center fielder, and/or a starting third baseman (JD Davis’ past defensive stats isn’t befitting of a team that is going to go far).
I do not think that trade is likely there, but the market has been unpredictable. If you are trading either of them, the more sensible candidate is probably Pete. Pete’s rookie campaign and good numbers in 2020 will net you the best return.
The Mets have been very coy about their plans for the defense in 2021. I really don’t think anyone should be surprised if the Mets go into 2021 with Dom and Nimmo both playing out-of-position.
Unless Zack Scott and Sandy Alderson have a huge deal in place, I think it is almost certain that Mets fans can buy an Alonso or Smith jersey and not worry about having to replace it.
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I disagree with Jessica because I think Nimmo needs to be on this team unless you get a significant upgrade at either SP or 3B, not a #4 starter. But as to the Dom/Pete question I'm surprised no one has ever brought up the Orlando Cepeda/Willie McCovey dilemma of the 1960s. The Giants traded Cepeda for Ray Sadecki, a 26 year old pitcher, a season removed from a 20 win season. Sadecki was a decent starting pitcher who pitched Ok for the Mets from 1970 to 1974. Cepeda continued his HOF career with great years for the Cards and Braves.
You have to sign Jackie Bradley Jr. to a 2 or 3 year deal put Nimmo in left and platoon Alonso and Smith at first base if there is no DH. Even though I personally don't like the DH but as a Mets fan the DH greatly improves the team's offense and defense because then you have Smith playing first and Alonso as the DH.