What's Up With J.D. Davis?
Pegged as an important depth cog, J.D. has been anything but productive
Image credit: Roberto Carlo
Heading into 2022, J.D. Davis knew which way the wind was blowing. Regardless of his previous ups and downs or the reassembled roster around him, the 29-year-old would get a fair shake at playing time under new Mets skipper Buck Showalter.
Davis himself wondered aloud whether he’d be back in Flushing this season. Alas, the gang remained intact. Depth City, baby.
Play well, earn more reps; it’s a tale as old as the game itself and is extremely applicable in Davis’ case. The same could be said about the Mets as a whole. Though, so far, Davis has not done himself too many favors in that regard.
Through his first 81 plate appearances, the Mets’ part-time DH is hitting .188/.296/.290 (80 wRC+). Davis’ 37.3% whiff rate is 13th-worst in the majors (minimum 75 PA). Not good.
As noted by many, Davis’ expected stats tell a starkly different story. His .376 xwOBA is good for 45th in all of baseball, his 12.8% barrel rate is 40th, and his 92.8 MPH average exit velocity ranks 15th. Davis’ expected slash line is a respectable .270/.372/.487.
The expected metrics say Davis should be yet another cog in the Mets’ long line of “today’s your day to win us a ballgame” crew. The actual results have not remotely fallen in line. So how have things gone so awry?
Davis’ production versus fastballs has declined sharply. Through 2019 (.322 BA, .530 SLG vs FB), 2020 (.292/.460), and 2021 (.291/.464, with a torn ligament in his hand), creaming heaters was J.D.’s bread and butter. This season, Davis is hitting .204 with a .306 slugging percentage versus fastballs.
From 2019 through last season, Davis put together a .278/.370/.460 line (125 wRC+) line against left-handers. This season, he’s limped his way to a .152/.263/.212 slash versus southpaws. All of this is very alarming.
It’s one thing to be missing Davis’ value on the roster (an exit velo king who hits lefties very well is a boon), but there’s another angle to this.
Without a defensive position and multiple guys in-house who are ready, willing, and able to pick up DH ABs against left-handers, an at-career-averages Davis could be a valuable trade chip if the Mets go searching for pitching depth in the absences of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom.
Whichever way the Mets are looking at the situation, a productive J.D. Davis increases the Mets’ chances of success. Right now, that’s not the case. You kinda have to wonder how long Showalter keeps penciling in Davis’ name if things keep spiraling.
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