There’s nothing quite like jumping down a few levels into the abyss that is the New York Mets’ uninspired start to the 2021 season.
The Mets currently find themselves in a funk, meandering through their first 16 games at a .500 pace. There’s no looking back, but there’s a plausible case to be made that this team could be at least 10-6 heading into Sunday’s series finale with the Nationals.
The sky wouldn’t be falling so rapidly if that were the case. Yet here we are.
The pitching has been overwhelmingly productive. New York’s 4.0 fWAR and 2.67 FIP as a pitching staff still lead the majors despite Marcus Stroman’s struggles on Saturday.
The same can’t be said for this team at the plate or in the field, unfortunately. As many have noted, the Mets have allowed 67 runs to score this season and only 51 of those have been earned runs. That’s not gonna play. Plain and simple.
Manager Luis Rojas made improved defense a constant talking point with the media in camp and a presumable on-field focus through spring training, and with good reason.
Since 2019, the Mets’ defense ranks second-to-last in MLB with -61 defensive runs saved and 22nd in baseball with a -14.2 ultimate zone rating. So far this season, the Mets’ -7 DRS ranks 27th, and their -1.4 UZR ranks 21st.
This is not a formula for winning.
The Mets have had their issues with J.D. Davis at third base so far and we’ve discussed that at length, but what’s happened to Michael Conforto in the outfield?
Conforto, who’s been a well-above-average corner outfielder through his career (+13 total outs above average in the corners between 2018 and 2019), has appeared to have fallen off a cliff defensively over the last 12 months.
In 2020, Conforto’s -5 OAA in right field ranked 116th out of 117 qualified MLB outfielders. And here we were giving Brandon Nimmo all the guff.
That ain’t great, clearly. But a 60-game season isn’t much of a sample size. Neither are the 16 games the Mets have played this season, for that matter. But it’s still reasonably concerning, nonetheless.
And for what it’s worth, Conforto’s playing average, even-money defense so far this season statistically (+/- 0 OAA, per Statcast), but it certainly doesn’t look that way, Saturday’s escapades included. All in due time.
Speaking of all in due time… has Luis Guillorme not shown enough on either side of the chalk over the last 18 months to warrant regular playing time and first dibs at late-game pinch-hit plate appearances?
He’s a wizard with the glove at multiple positions and has been terrific with the bat going back to the middle of 2019 (.316/.419/.430, 138 wRC+ over 138 PA).
Guillorme getting the nod consistently over Jonathan Villar, whether that’s at second base or third base or pinch-hitting, seems like a logical course of action at this point.
Villar, a switch-hitter, serves a purpose but has outpaced Guillorme in PH appearances by a 2:1 rate and has appeared in five games at third base, a position he hadn’t played in a regular-season game since 2016 (-10 OAA with Milwaukee).
Again, has Luis Guillorme not done enough? Any sort of spark to snap the Mets out of this sleepwalking episode would be helpful. Guillorme has been that guy in the past and can be that guy moving forward.
Anything to wake this team from this frustrating slumber.
The Mets enter Sunday with a .559 OPS and 68 wRC+ with runners in scoring position. That’s the worst OPS and third-worst wRC+ with RISP in baseball, for those keeping track.
With a roster laden with oodles of firepower and proven consistency, this shouldn’t be as difficult as they’re making it. Onward and upward.
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LOVE the Title!! & as ALWAYS, the content is Great and Detailed! Blessed Sunday Tim! Praying, Hoping for a Series W today!!