Uncertainty Shadowing Mets Offseason

Dominoes had better start falling fast...

Nothing has seemed to break the New York Mets’ way this offseason. Well, at least at first.

An arduous search for a president of baseball operations before pivoting to longtime Yankees and Angels front office mainstay Billy Eppler as their new general manager set an uneasy tone for what is undoubtedly a pivotal winter in Flushing.

They may have landed on the right hire (time will tell), but the organization’s journey to get there was akin to a rickety, old wooden roller-coaster. Unstable. Frightening at times.

Now, as other teams have begun making essential roster moves ahead of a widely expected work stoppage upon the collective bargaining agreement’s expiration on December 1, the Mets again find themselves playing catch-up. Never easy…

A presumable relief target of the Mets’, left-hander Aaron Loup, joined Noah Syndergaard in Anaheim on a two-year, $17 million deal with a team option for a third ($7.5 million per season, option year included; or a $2 million buyout after 2023).

That stings. It’s not the end of the world, but losing a guy who absolutely soared last season over a few million dollars feels like a misstep.

Trevor May’s two-year, $15.5 million deal with the Mets ahead of the 2021 season is a recent example of market value for an upper-echelon relief pitcher.

As evidenced by Loup’s elite 2021 season (0.95 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, .187 BAA) and 151 ERA+ since 2017 (despite missing nearly all of 2019; elbow), the 33-year-old left-hander with non-existent righty-lefty splits is surely in that category.

An additional $1.5 million in total shouldn’t have necessarily stopped the Mets from bringing Loup back. Though, if they have other plans for those funds and believe they can find equal or additional value elsewhere, we can live with it. So, let’s see what you got.

Mike Puma of the New York Post noted late Monday that the Mets had “eyes” for Twins left-hander Taylor Rogers (3.35 ERA, 59 strikeouts, eight walks in 40.1 IP last season; also the twin brother of Giants submariner right-hander Tyler Rogers), who could certainly offer some relief (pun city) to the Mets’ now-depleted bullpen.

Entering his final year of arbitration eligibility after making $6 million in 2021, the 30-year-old has the stuff to succeed (slider, sinker; sub-.400 SLG on both, 38.8% whiff on the slider) and would leave the Mets with funds to redistribute to other areas of the roster in need.

We’re all for that.

For instance, the Mets need starting pitchers. Badly. We spoke here a few days ago about going high-end to fill out the rotation, naming right-handers Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman as our preferred targets.

With $18.4 million extra to spend via Noah’s departure and a few bucks hypothetically saved on a potential swap-out of Loup for Rogers, the luxury route could be attainable.

San Francisco reportedly came to agreements with right-hander Anthony DeSclafani (three years, $36 million) and left-hander Alex Wood (terms not reported) to fill out their still half-bare starting five, lending credence to the idea that Gausman, 30, might not be returning to the Bay.

That’s strictly speculation, but even so, the Mets had better make every effort to check before yet another potential upgrade comes off the board. They can’t afford to settle when determining who takes the vacated second spot in the rotation.

Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported late Monday that the Mets were one of many teams to have made an offer left-hander Steven Matz (eight offers, per DiComo), presumably with hopes of filling out the back-end depth of their stable.

With a 96 ERA+ to his credit over seven MLB seasons, the Long Island, NY product is the epitome of a fifth starter. And that could work, as long as that’s the plan. We’d still like to see two tops guys added (Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco as your fourth and fifth starters ain’t bad), but dependable depth is never a bad thing.

The now-30-year-old put up a 3.82 ERA over 29 starts with Toronto last season (2.57 BB/9 and 1.08 HR/9 best since 2016, 115 ERA+ best of his career). Quintessential back-end starter stuff.

So if DeSclafani (129 ERA+ in 2021; 104 for his career) got 3/$36M, let’s assume Matz signs for somewhere close to that. Not ideal, especially with the Mets’ sizable goals for the winter, but doable.

And hey, if Matz worked out for the 91-win Blue Jays in the ultra-competitive AL East last season, it could theoretically work just as well in Queens. Once again: not ideal, but doable.

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