Trevor May's Ability to Adapt Benefits Mets

After a solid 2021, integral 2022 on deck for veteran righty

Image credit: Chris Simon

Trevor May’s 3.59 earned run average over 68 appearances doesn’t tell more than a small portion of the 32-year-old’s story from his first year in Flushing.

Was it a bit unsightly for one of the team’s higher regarded free-agent additions last offseason (two years, $15.5 million)? Sure. But looks can be deceiving.

Before we jump into the statistical side of things, let’s do a quick walk-through of May’s 2021 campaign.

After allowing two runs over a third of an inning in an Opening Day loss at Philadelphia, May lobbied then-Mets skipper Luis Rojas to get him back out there the next day, which resulted in a 1.53 ERA over his next 18 appearances (23 strikeouts, four walks, .224/.268/.373; 17.2 IP, April 6 through May 25).

A string of postponements and off-days kept him off the mound until May 31 in Arizona. He gave up two runs in two-thirds of a frame in the desert and then stayed on that schneid through June 14 versus Chicago, allowing three homers and six earned over just five appearances (3.2 IP).

Two quick notes before moving forward:

We spoke about May’s need for consistent work as this was all unfolding (June 16, The Apple) and that trend continued through the season.

When appearing on zero-to-two days of rest (42 appearances), May compiled a 2.20 ERA with 64 strikeouts and 15 walks (eight free passes allowed when pitching on one day of rest, oddly).

Pitching on back-to-back days, the Pacific Northwesterner pitched to a 1.69 ERA with 0.86 WHIP and a .536 OPS against. Geez…

Naturally, the effects of a three-day-or-more layoff (16 appearances) were stark (8.56 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 19 K, 9 BB; 13.2 IP).

Let the man eat. Obviously, it’s what works for him. There also could have been a bit more at play toward the end of the above-referenced stretch from hell.

Per May, the Cubs were on to something during his June 14 outing (two HR, 0.2 IP).

Like May notes in the video, once things were remedied on his end, it was back to business as usual (two perfect appearances later in the series). And the good times didn’t stop there.

From June 16 (first outing after tipping) through July 5 (10 appearances, 10 IP), May was nearly flawless, striking out 14 with two walks and no earned runs.

Two runs allowed versus Pittsburgh on July 10 broke that streak, but May settled back into another one quickly, putting up a 1.59 ERA over his next 12 appearances to begin the second half (July 17 to August 10).

A brief descent into madness ensued over his next two outings, giving up six earned in an inning and a third combined versus Washington on August 12 and at San Francisco on August 16.

In a message to The Apple, May acknowledged that old habits may have briefly re-emerged and contributed to the slip-up.

“It’s definitely possible,” he wrote. “The San Francisco one specifically was mostly location and stuff related. The Washington one, though, possibly.”

In any case, things were straightened out in short order.

Over his next 19 appearances (August 18 through the end of the season), May held opposing hitters to a .200/.268/.323 line with a 31% strikeout rate (37% on his four-seam!) and 26% hard-hit rate with a 2.08 ERA.

In fact, without those six earned via Washington and San Fran, May’s ERA going back to June 16 would be 1.81 and he’d have had a 2.78 ERA for the season. Not bad.

Of course, things don't work that way. But evidence of May pinpointing whatever issues arise in real-time, addressing them quickly, and keeping things moving is arguably more impressive than any earned run metric.

His advanced and expected stats were all among the game’s elite. May’s 31.2% strikeout rate, .264 weighted on-base average, 34% hard-hit rate, .192 expected batting average, and 2.96 expected ERA were all in the top-15 percent of the league.

And his arsenal is something to behold. May’s four-seam (.217/.294/.371, 33.2% whiff; 96.5 MPH, 2,369 average RPM good for 90th and 79th percentile, respectively) and slider (.164/.217/.291, 30.1% whiff) were incredible.

His changeup was hit hard (1.045 OPS) but only when he missed his spots with it. May generally got the most out of it when placing it very low or out of the zone.

He has found success with the high-changeup inside to right-handed batters, but that plan has also backfired at times.

The top image below is May’s whiff rate on the changeup and the bottom image is batting average (minimum zero swings on both).

Again, it all comes down to adjustments being made to stay a step ahead of the competition, which May appears to be quite adept at.

With the stakes being raised considerably next season, Mets fans should probably expect May’s intensity (and hopefully effectiveness) to spike with it. Fun.

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