Tomás Nido: Starting Catcher?
Defensive whiz arguably gives Mets best chance to win...
Image credit: Chris Simon
The catcher position is not what it once was. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. It just is what it is. The game has always evolved and will continue to do so. Adds to the charm. Usually.
In most cases, defensive contributions behind the plate have taken precedent over in-the-box production, with offensive upside evolving into a bonus, of sorts. Case in point, MLB backstops hit .228/.304/.391 collectively in 2021.
Yasmani Grandal of the White Sox was the only catcher in the majors (minimum 250 plate appearances) with an OPS over .900 (.939). Buster Posey (.889), Will Smith (.860), Mike Zunino (.860), and Salvador Perez (.859) were the only ones who breached the .800 OPS plateau.
The Mets were no different from the rest of the non-unicorn-employing teams in baseball, with James McCann (.232/.294/.349, 10 home runs, 77 OPS+) and Tomás Nido (.222/.261/.327, 3 HR, 61 OPS+) both trending toward league average at the dish.
McCann’s sharp decline in offensive firepower was an extreme letdown after the 31-year-old put up a .276/.335/.474 slash line (25 HR, 114 OPS+) over 149 games between 2019 and 2020, which led to him signing a four-year, $40 million deal with the Mets last winter.
There was a high point at the plate for McCann last season (.288/.341/.500 in June; 88 PA). But, overall, this was a very far cry from what the team (and fans) had likely been expecting. Especially considering the Mets passed on J.T. Realmuto (.782 OPS in 2021) in favor of McCann early in free agency last winter.
Nido hit a little peak of his own last year, slashing .273/.314/.404 over 105 plate appearances from May 3 to July 26 — including noticeable gains in barrel rate (6.4%) and hard-hit rate (43.1%; Statcast) compared to his last 100+ PA stay in the majors (136 PA, 2019; 5.0% barrel, 30.9% hard-hit) — but it’s the 27-year-old’s glovework that sets him apart.
And that’s not to discredit Nido’s 2016 High-A batting title with St. Lucie (.320/.357/.459, 370 PA) or his .290/.300/.316 line over 40 plate appearances with Triple-A Syracuse in 2019. It’s just that what he does behind the plate is just so damn impressive.
In 2021, Nido’s five framing runs (Statcast) were seventh in the majors among qualified catchers (59 total). His 53.5% strike rate ranked first.
As a matter of fact, Nido’s strike rate percentages were near the top of the list all around the zone (Zone 16, 1st; Zone 19, 1st; Zone 17, 5th; Zone 14, 29th; Zone 18, 27th).
Statcast hasn’t made catcher pop times public since 2019, but Nido’s 1.93-second average was good for fifth in the majors that season.
By comparison, McCann’s 2019 pop time was 2.05 seconds (58th), and last season his -3 framing runs and 47.9% strike rate ranked 49th and 35th in the majors, respectively.
To be clear, between Nido and McCann, defensively, there is no comparison. There’s always that offensive bonus to consider, of course. But, at the core of the debate, going with who gives this team the best chance to win should be the prime objective.
And this particular conundrum should give the Mets decision-makers migraines when it comes for them to start writing lineups that count two weeks from today.
So what do we know at the current juncture? The Mets’ newest co-ace, Max Scherzer, has already noted he doesn’t “play that game” of choosing a receiver. He’s familiar with McCann from their days in Detroit and told reporters he’d been throwing to Nido during training sessions through the lockout.
Scherzer’s five innings of three-hit ball with Nido behind the dish on Monday was certainly encouraging, but there is another leading man in this Mets starting five. And there’s quite a bit more data available to make a call in that regard.
Last season, Jacob deGrom pitched to James McCann in nine of his 15 starts, putting up a 1.29 ERA in those outings. Outstanding. In six starts with Nido catching, deGrom had a 0.75 ERA. Another level.
Among catchers who’ve caught at least 100 innings from deGrom in his career, Nido’s 1.59 ERA tops them all (Devin Mesoraco, 1.60 ERA, 140.2 IP).
As a team in 2021, the Mets had a shade more success throwing to Nido (3.69 ERA, 365.2 IP; McCann, 4.00 ERA, 826.1 IP). Notably, Taijuan Walker had a 2.86 ERA over five starts throwing to Nido compared to a 4.42 ERA over 21 starts with McCann back there.
This should all carry weight. And yes, McCann’s $10 million per year salary likely will, as well. But it should be interesting to see how it all shakes out.
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