The Mets 2021 Rotation: How It Shakes Up

Additional moves could be en route, but the path is clear to a strong rotational showing

As the offseason comes to a close, the Mets rotation could still use another piece.

With Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard as the last holdovers from the days of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz, the 2021 Mets rotation looks radically different — especially with Noah likely out until around Memorial Day as he completes his return from Tommy John surgery.

The 2021 Mets are now anchored by deGrom, who was about the sixth-highest touted pitching prospect of that aforementioned era (i.e. Rafael Montero).

Along with the ace, the newly-acquired Carlos Carrasco and a returning Marcus Stroman should lead the Mets’ rotation.

The ZiPS projections for Carrasco and Stroman have them both pitching solid seasons of a 3.60 ERA/3.68 FIP for Carrasco and a 3.88 ERA/4.16 FIP for Stroman. This should be a more than formidable top-three to compete in the NL East.

Where the rotation gets a little hairy is in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. With Thor out, David Peterson will likely be competing for a slot in one of those positions.

Despite his tangible success in 2020, Peterson’s 5.11 expected fielding independent pitching rating (expected ERA adjusted for league average fielding) was actually 14th-worst in MLB among starters with over 40 innings pitched. That’s definitely something to watch for.

The fifth starter spot has even more of a question mark next to it. The Mets made excellent depth moves this offseason with the acquisitions of Joey Lucchesi and Jordan Yamamoto and at this moment will likely be in the mix for a back-end spot.

With both Yamamoto and Lucchesi having minor league options either could head to Syracuse to start the season or even head to the bullpen as an extra arm, as well.

Ideally, the Mets sign another starter and push for a three-way competition between Peterson, Lucchesi, and Yamamoto for the fifth spot in the rotation. The two highest-profile names still available on the market are Taijuan Walker and Jake Odorizzi.

Odorizzi and the Mets have been linked on and off all offseason, with the rumor being that Odorizzi is seeking a three-year deal. Walker wasn’t linked to the Mets much until Michael Mayer of Metsmerized reported this week that the Mets were showing serious interest in Walker.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet Canada confirmed traction on those discussions Wednesday night, as discussed here.

Walker would be a smart move. He is only 28, and despite missing most of 2018 and 2019 due to injuries, pitched very well for the Mariners and Blue Jays in 2020. Walker had a 2.70 ERA in 2020 and holds a career 3.84 ERA.

Adding another arm like Walker’s to the back end of the Mets rotation will help the team compete until Syndergaard returns to Citi Field in the summer.

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