The Intrigue of J.D. Davis' Return
Where Davis' impressive offensive profile fits is anyone's guess, but it's certainly nice to have it back in the mix
On Friday in Pittsburgh, the New York Mets will welcome back a considerable component to this team’s offensive success over the last few seasons in J.D. Davis.
In 49 plate appearances rehabbing with Triple-A Syracuse (two separate stints; 2-for-11 in late-May), Davis hit .316/.469/.737 with four home runs, eight doubles, and 212 wRC+.
That’s pretty good. I guess.
A left middle-finger sprain has kept the 28-year-old third baseman/outfielder/DH of the future on the shelf since early May.
Leading up to that point, Davis was raking, slashing .390/.479/.610 with three extra-base hits over 48 plate appearances.
Whether or not these numbers were sustainable (they’re not) was — and remains — secondary. The Mets lost a key contributor and had to adjust, which they did splendidly.
But that roller coaster was neither easy nor fun.
A number of injuries, Davis included, left the Mets’ offense impotent at times. Their 3.76 runs per game in the first half ranked 29th in MLB, ahead of their first foes of the home stretch, the Pirates (3.54 RPG).
It is what it is, as the Mets won enough games over the last two-plus months to keep their heads not just above water but hit the All-Star break with a 3.5-game lead in the NL East.
That’s outstanding. And now, with a fuller cast than they’ve had since April — if not more so — the real excitement begins.
We spoke earlier this week about the noticeable uptick the Mets’ offense has experienced with a more complete lineup and the opportunity that lies ahead for this team.
Brandon Nimmo’s .316/.366/.421 batting line over 41 plate appearances since returning on July 3 breathed new life into the Mets, who have put up 5.2 runs per game (10 games) since his return.
The turnarounds of Francisco Lindor, Dominic Smith, and Jeff McNeil have been extremely encouraging. Michael Conforto’s three-run homer on Sunday versus the Buccos was a hopeful sign for better days through the dog days.
And that road only figures to get brighter with Davis’ return. Now the Mets just need to find a way to get his bat into the lineup on a consistent basis without giving up much advantage on the defensive side.
Since making his debut with New York in 2019, the former Astros farmhand has hit .295/.377/.491 with 30 homers, 34 doubles, 134 wRC+, and 3.5 wins above replacement (FanGraphs) over basically what amounts to a full season (730 PA).
That’s a bonafide difference-maker, friends. If Davis’ glove wasn’t a vulnerability, we wouldn't be having this discussion, but it is (-9 OAA in left field since 2019; -6 OAA at third base; via Statcast) and we are.
Hiding a subpar glove isn’t as easy as it was when this team was playing bad defense. The bar has been raised in 2021.
From 2018 through 2020, New York’s -92 total defensive runs saved and -2.1 ultimate zone rating per 150 games (both via FanGraphs) ranked 28th and 22nd, respectively, in MLB.
This season, the Mets’ 37 DRS and 0.8 UZR/150 rank fourth and eighth in baseball. It’s amazing what solid defense can do for a ball club.
On the flip side of that coin, with the more advanced fielder placement that the Mets have employed (and enjoyed) this season, Davis’ shortcomings could possibly be countered.
Per Statcast, the Mets have shifted their defensive positions more than any other team in the majors this season (55.7 percent; Dodgers second at 53.4%), and the results have been terrific, as noted above.
When the Mets shift, right-handed batters have a weighted on-base average of .310 against them, and lefties have a .294 wOBA, both good for ninth in baseball, respectively.
One would imagine someone with, let’s say below-average defensive skills, would benefit from some data-aided defensive placement. We shall see.
There’s also the conundrum of what this organization does if the Cubs’ Kris Bryant — a fine third baseman and corner outfielder with a just-as-impressive, more proven offensive profile — becomes available for a palatable price.
In any case, the Mets will have another weapon at their disposal in J.D. Davis, which is always a great thing in a pennant race. LFGM.
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