So Far, Pretty Damn Good
Mets flexing all sorts of muscles early on...
Image credit: Chris Simon
As the calendar flips to May (you couldn’t tell by the weather in New York), the Mets are in the driver’s seat on many fronts.
The most important, of course, is a 15-7 record through their first 22 games and a two-game cushion in the NL East over Miami, who have won seven in a row and are looking every bit the part of gritty overachievers.
Plenty of time to let the fish marinate — as well as allow for a scuffling but talented division to find their footing — but something to keep an eye on, for sure.
As for the Metsies, this team is operating as assembled. Billy Eppler & Co. got the spend-to-win green light from Steve Cohen this winter, had a plan in place knowing exactly what they wanted to construct, and did it.
We talked this winter about the Mets’ obvious push toward improving production with runners in scoring position and limiting strikeouts. And they’ve done both in spades.
Through the first month of the season (minus a locked-out week), New York is hitting .266/.369/.385 with RISP (129 wRC+, ninth in MLB), and is second in the majors with a 20.1% strikeout rate.
Through April, the Mets’ hitters have the second-best CSW% (called strike and whiff rate) in baseball (26.3%; LAD, 26.1%). The pitching staff leads the majors in that metric (30.8%), which is a really impressive team flex, but we’ll get to them in a few.
Oddly enough, the Mets are producing at an elite pace offensively while mostly going against the grain (Buck-ing the trend, perhaps? I’ll see myself out).
Their 4.8 fWAR and 121 wRC+ (second and third in MLB, respectively) speak for themselves. But the way they’re getting the job done is what’s striking. Remarkable, in fact.
New York enters May with the second-lowest average exit velocity (87.0 MPH) and lowest hard-hit rate (33.5%) in baseball, yet they’ve got on base more than anyone in baseball (.341 OBP) and are sixth in runs scored (98). Incredible.
Image credit: Roberto Carlo
Major League Baseball’s baseball problem in April was more than noticeable, as power output plummeted around the league. Buck Showalter presumably saw the trend emerging early and we got some small ball in response.
As of Sunday, the Mets’ 12 stolen bases are ninth in MLB and their 2.8 BsR (FanGraphs’ baserunning metric) is fourth.
Per Statcast, the Mets have seen the third-most out-of-zone pitches in MLB. In turn, they’ve put up a league-leading 62.8% chase contact rate.
And best yet, they’re not selling out for the long ball. Just the opposite, actually. The Mets are simply allowing the game to come to them, putting the ball in play, and letting things develop as they should.
When you’ve got seven regulars with wRC+ ratings over 100 (Brandon Nimmo, 163; Jeff McNeil, 160; Francisco Lindor, 153; Mark Canha, 146; Eduardo Escobar, 144; J.D. Davis, 136; Pete Alonso, 122) and bench guys pulling their weight (Travis Jankowski, 125 wRC+; Luis Guillorme, 121), you can afford to wait things out from Starling Marte (88 wRC+, not concerned), Dominic Smith (64 wRC+, moderately concerned), and the catchers.
Robinson Cano seems to be on his way out but we’ll see how that milk spills once rosters shrink this week.
On the pitching side of things, sure, there have been hiccups. But it hasn’t slowed this staff down whatsoever.
Fluctuations in the bullpen’s consistency have left the relief corps with a very-much middle-of-the-road 3.46 ERA. The level of production (and stuff) via Edwin Diaz, Drew Smith, and Chasen Shreve can’t be understated. Joely Rodriguez has been a solid addition. Seth Lugo looks to be nearly back to being Seth Lugo. And Trevor May is too damn good not to find his rhythm.
As for the starters, things are good. Like, ridiculously, unbelievably good. Entering Sunday, Max Scherzer (0.9 fWAR), Tylor Megill (0.7), Chris Bassitt (0.5), and Carlos Carrasco (0.4) all rank among the top-30 in fWAR leaguewide. And that’s including Cookie’s dud in St. Louis this week plus some guy named Jake not throwing a pitch yet.
We’ve heard the phrase “next man up” for years. That usually meant fighting injuries with roster depth, which was the case with Jacob deGrom and Taijuan Walker through April. But overall, offense included, every guy on this team can look to their left or right and see a viable, trustworthy option to get the job done when their number is called.
That’s next man up. Onward.
Never any paywalls. Once it leaves my head, it’s yours. Of course, if you want to help keep the lights on, it’s greatly appreciated.
Become a paid subscriber below, or if you enjoyed the story, drop a buck or two in our Venmo account (@TheAppleNYM)
Use promo code THEAPPLE for a 125% deposit bonus when you sign up with BetUS!
Crazy. They haven't even had a hot streak yet. Just winning series.