Mets Pass the Whiff Test
Eppler's retooled Mets looking through a contact lens
In 2021, from the micro to the macro, the New York Mets’ offense generally underperformed. And it cost them dearly. Though, it also led to a noticeable step in the right direction for this team.
There were bright spots last season. Namely, Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo. But overall, a failure to produce in big spots — or, for prolonged stretches of the season, any spots — contributed heavily to a five-game divisional lead on August 1 devolving into an 11 1/2 game deficit by season’s end.
Routine failure with runners in scoring position set this team back last year. Well, maybe not routine. Nimmo (127 wRC+ w/RISP), Alonso (118), and Francisco Lindor (152!) carried their weight. Otherwise, the Mets were mostly ineffective in those spots (.704 OPS, 26th in MLB). That’s not gonna play.
In December we spoke about Mets general manager Billy Eppler’s apparent intent to shore up New York’s ducks-on-the-pond deficiencies with the additions of Starling Marte (144 wRC+ w/RISP last season), Mark Canha (129), and Eduardo Escobar (125), who also clobbered his first home run of Grapefruit League play in Saturday’s win over the Nats.
Upon further inspection, this wasn’t the only direction Eppler & Co. were looking when they remade the Mets’ offensive roster this winter. And this shift in approach could catch the league on their heels.
Going back, oh, I don’t know, 20 years or so, strikeouts have become a bigger part of the game. Like, pronounced.
In 2002, the league struck out in 16.8 percent of plate appearances, up from 14.7 percent in 1992. By 2012, that figure rose to 19.8 percent. That metric climbed to 21.6% in 2017, peaked at 23.4 percent in 2020 (a 60-game schedule will do that), and settled back into its steady uphill trajectory at 23.2 percent in 2021.
Between a wildfire-like focus on putting the ball in the air (not a bad thing if a hitter can make it work; others simply try too hard to be something they’re not) a shift has occurred. A trend has been set. In stone.
To most observers, this is a country mile from the game they grew up with. Some (such as myself) get unparalleled kicks from watching pitchers baffle hitters. The overwhelming majority of casual baseball fans do not. To each their own.
As noted earlier this week when discussing the catcher position, this game has a way of perpetually evolving. And when it inevitably does, teams must either adapt or die. It appears the Mets are going with the former.
Strikeouts weren’t a glaring issue for last year’s squad. In fact, five Mets regulars held strikeout rates below the 23.2 percent league average (Jeff McNeil, 13.6%; Lindor, 18.3%; Alonso, 19.9%; Nimmo, 20.5%; Dominic Smith, 22.7%) and the team as a whole as only marginally above at 23.8 percent.
But with the scales continually tipping in the pitchers’ favor via data integration and the ageless dynamic of an at-best 30 percent success rate at the plate, plugging whatever leaks you can is always a fine course of action.
Please welcome back to the stage Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar, who finished last season with strikeout rates of 18.8 percent, 20.5 percent, and 20.7 percent, respectively. That bodes awfully well for this offense as a group.
Leaving the backstops out of this (James McCann, 27.9% strikeout rate last season; Tomás Nido, 27.3%), as well as J.D. Davis (32.2% in 2021 after putting up marks of 21.4% in 2019 and 24.5% in 2020, likely resulting from his now-surgically-repaired hand), the Mets now have one of the more whiff-proof offenses in baseball.
Below are New York’s representatives among the game’s top-100 strikeout percentages since 2019 (qualified hitters):
McNeil, 13.1%, 8th in MLB
Lindor, 16.3%, 25th
Marte, 17.2%, 33rd
Escobar, 19.4%, 44th
Canha, 21.2%, 58th
Alonso, 23.6%, 85th
Toss in the guys who didn’t qualify (Davis, 24.7% since 2019; Nimmo, 22.3%; Dom, 22.6%; Robinson Canó, 15.4% in 2019-20; Luis Guillorme, 14.7% in 2021), and these Metsies are well-prepared for today’s game.
Michael Conforto actually fit the mold well (21.7% K last season, a career-low). Maybe it was just time for everyone to move on. But it’s more than plausible that the Mets didn’t make a real effort at bringing Javier Báez back to Flushing due to his infamous shortcomings in this department (30.9% since 2019 is highest in MLB).
Put the ball in play, good things happen. Onward.
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Awesome stats!