Mets Must Account for DeGrom's Unusually Cloudy Forecast
Jake's the best many of us have ever seen, but his future has never been as uncertain as it is right now...
Image: Roberto Carlo
In to each life, a little rain must fall. In an athlete’s life, that storm sometimes includes the age-old story of injuries cutting down what might have been.
In most cases, the player — young or old — is forced to adapt and continue their journey with a new set of parameters. The player isn’t necessarily doomed to be less effective post-injury. Most come back stronger than ever. The landscape just changes a bit.
In some cases, though, there’s more at stake. A high draft pick or well-regarded prospect goes down. Maybe an organizational centerpiece or, in Jacob deGrom’s case, possibly the best pitcher that’s ever stepped on a major league mound is befallen.
Since making his MLB debut in 2014, the former Stetson University shortstop (drafted in the ninth round, as a pitcher, in 2010), deGrom’s been nothing short of exceptional, pitching to a 2.50 ERA with 1.01 WHIP, 1,505 strikeouts, 295 walks, and 38.9 fWAR over 198 career starts.
There were bumps in the road to greatness, of course. We’ve spoken here about his out-of-tune start to the 2017 season, the shellacking he received in Texas that summer, and the historic corner that was turned from there.
Since the start of 2018, deGrom’s 1.94 ERA and 23.5 fWAR are best in the majors among qualified starters, his 0.88 WHIP and .187 batting average against ranks second (Justin Verlander, 0.85 WHIP, .184 BAA), and his 774 strikeouts are third among the same group.
Toss in back-to-back National League Cy Young Awards (2018 and 2019), and you’re looking at a potential first-ballot Hall of Fame resumé being constructed. Then came 2021, and Jake went out to quash any questions regarding his status among the game’s all-time elite.
Over his first six starts of the season (40 innings), deGrom pitched to a 0.68 ERA with 14.63 strikeouts and 1.58 walks per nine innings. Man on fire. Geez. Almost like someone admittedly using grip substances beat him out for a third consecutive NL CYA.
After landing on the injured list with right side tightness following his early exit on May 9 (sixth start in the stretch referenced above), deGrom returned without skipping a beat, allowing one earned run total over his next four outings, striking out 38 with just one base-on-balls over 24 innings of work.
Jake was perfect through three with eight strikeouts versus the Cubs at Citi Field on June 16 before leaving with right shoulder tightness, went back out in his next start with five shutout innings, one hit, and eight punchouts against the Braves, then the armor began to weaken a bit.
Heading into his start in Atlanta on July 1 with a 99.2 MPH average fastball velocity, deGrom’s four-seam dipped as low as 95.1 MPH and then 95.4 MPH in what would be his final start of the season on July 7 against Milwaukee. One week later he was on the IL with right forearm tightness.
On July 30 Jake was shut down from throwing as inflammation continued. On August 20 he was moved to the 60-day IL retroactively. And on September 7, Mets’ team president Sandy Alderson spilled the beans that deGrom had actually suffered a “slight tear” of his ulnar collateral ligament (by definition, a sprain).
The cat was officially out of the bag.
Image credit: Chris Simon
Alderson offered assurances that deGrom was continuing his rehab pain-free with an eye toward returning before the end of the season, as did Jake himself, who alluded to the fact that he wouldn't be ramping up unless he was healthy.
Alas, the Mets crumbled down the stretch, and the risk of rushing deGrom back onto the bump before the schedule ran out simply wasn’t worth the reward of just seeing him up there. There wasn’t much left for the Mets to play for at that point.
Though, for all intents and purposes, Jake working his way back to being game-ready, whether he pitched in a game or not, is a plus heading into the offseason. Having everything on track is a good place to be.
Ok, so what happens now? We know what to expect from Jacob deGrom — freaking excellence — but how does a 33-year-old with a brand-spanking-new elbow issue navigate his way back to the trajectory he was on.
As noted above, deGrom is well on his way to enshrinement in upstate New York, even with the abbreviated record book he’s kept thus far. He’s been that incredible.
But what if he’s simply not the same pitcher anymore? Unlikely, but a fair question, nonetheless. Age taking its toll and the subsequent physical breakdown of that process are back to being constants in this game (sans PEDs).
And this probably isn’t the most realistic of scenarios in Jake’s case considering we've seen the level of dedication and effort deGrom puts into his craft, but an elbow isn’t an oblique or a plant-foot tweak. Gotta tread with caution. Especially in the Mets’ case.
DeGrom has an opt-out clause in his contract after the 2022 season, so all inquiring minds will have their answer as to who he is upon returning. That’s a plus. But how about down the line?
Jake is due $30.5 million via player option in 2023 and $32.5 million through a team option in 2024. Assuming deGrom is Queens for the long haul, there will need to be some sort of contingency plan in place in the event that his UCL is compromised again.
It almost makes Marcus Stroman’s availability on the market this winter a golden opportunity for the Mets to secure a proven number-two starter who — as evidenced by his 3.02 ERA over an MLB-leading 33 starts this season while stepping into the ace role in deGrom’s absence — would fit the bill if Jake went down again.
In any case, a healthy Jacob deGrom is a valuable asset to have on one’s pitching staff. The sturdiest foundation you could imagine for an MLB rotation, probably.
That being said, it’s always nice to have a backup plan in place for when the nacho helmet hits the fan. As it always seems to do around these parts.
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