Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections love the New York Mets’ chances in 2021. But until that last out is called, we have no way of knowing how this cookie crumbles. Wholly encouraging, in any case.
The Mets are well-equipped to create havoc in the National League East this season — that’s no secret. An absolutely stacked offense, a solid starting rotation, and a bullpen fully stocked with some extremely live arms are sure to give their divisional foes fits.
No one truly expects Atlanta to finish a few games over .500 behind the Nationals and Phillies as NL East also-rans, as projected (or the Marlins to win less than 70 games; I like that squad a lot). But each team’s respective vulnerabilities appear to have taken a toll on their overall outlook.
Not the Metsies, though. Per BP, New York’s been pegged with a 77.4 percent chance to win the division with an estimated 95.5 wins (half-wins? when is Manfred gonna stop with these new rules…).
A skim through the Mets current depth chart is a fun one. The levels of talent strewn about this roster is as impressive as it is unfortunate, considering the universal designated hitter remains unadopted for 2021 with a matter of days until camps open.
Guys like Luis Guillorme, Albert Almora Jr., and Jonathan Villar, will be tasked with earning their keep (J.D. Davis and Dominic Smith have been forced to play this game, so can they). But that’s not a bad thing.
Internal competition breeds excellence; brings the best out of 1 through 26 (unless there’s a doubleheader, then it’s 27, or September, which in case…). Optimal performance is the goal, right?
Chances are the Mets aren’t done tinkering with their personnel, but that could mean minor depth additions across the board, nothing more (starting pitching aside, of course; still would like to see another piece there, oh, hey Jake Odorizzi).
Or, it could mean a seismic shift. In that case, to heck with worrying about playing time; just win, baby.
We’ve heard the rumblings of Kris Bryant being shopped — whether that’s Chicago acting aggressively or simply fishing for a nice return is TBD — and discussions earlier this offseason regarding Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez and right-hander Sonny Gray (talked about Gray here on Thursday).
Either Bryant or Suarez would be an upgrade defensively over Davis at third base and both are still in their offensive primes (I implore you to disregard Bryant’s finger and oblique injury-plagued 2020; 34 games is not even a sample size).
Whether the move is necessary is another question altogether. Davis can provide just below-average defense (-2 OAA at third since 2019) with an alluring offensive profile.
Acquiring either Suarez and Bryant would be a stern “we’re here” sort of move, though. And, if possible, holding onto Davis and sticking him on your bench strengthens and lengthens the roster even more.
We don’t know how this plays out, clearly. But it’s plausible that even with days to go until spring training, actual upgrade options with an eye toward championship contention are still being explored.
That’s a great sign for this organization. Stay tuned.
I think the Mets end up balking in anything blockbuster until the deadline. Just platoon Davis/Guillorme over at third until a new option comes.
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