Javier Báez Endearing Himself to Flushing Fast
El Mago's latest tricks get two emphatic thumbs-up from us...
Image credit: Roberto Carlo
The New York Mets surely had a distinct vision in mind when they acquired Javier Báez from the Chicago Cubs for top outfield prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong in July.
Up until recently, that dream had remained unfulfilled. Naturally, restlessness became the overwhelming outside sentiment. Can’t blame anyone for that.
Though, over the last week or two, everyone’s finally beginning to see the El Mago.
“[On Sunday] I was just focused on my timing. I’m just trying to get my timing down,” Báez said from a happy clubhouse. “Just having confidence out there and I was seeing the ball pretty good.”
That he was. And that he has.
Following his 4-for-4 day at the plate in Sunday’s 13-6 win over the Nationals, keeping the Mets three-and-a-half games back of the division-leading Braves and four back in the NL Wild Card race, Báez is hitting .313/.365/.667 with four homers, five doubles, and 176 wRC+ over 52 plate appearances since returning from the injured list on August 22.
No, Báez isn’t leading the way offensively for New York over that stretch. That designation would belong to Jonathan Villar, who’s hitting .435/.490/.761 with an MLB-leading 235 wRC+ and 1.0 fWAR over that span (unreal).
The shortstop-turned-keystone is simply revealing to the Mets — as a team, organization, and fan-inclusive family — who he truly is as a ballplayer and what his contributions to a ballclub truly entail.
After the thumbs-down drama that Báez placed himself in the center of last week when he spilled the beans on the origins of the teamwide celebration — only exacerbated by the abysmal stretch the Mets found themselves in at the time — the situation was ripe for the 28-year-old to lean on what’s got him to this point in his career — his ridiculously high ceiling as a player and being a dedicated energy source for whatever team he’s playing for.
Following an encouraging first few seasons in the majors (.274/.316/.449, 38 HR, 98 wRC+ over 315 games from 2015 through 2017), the 28-year-old scraped his professional peak in 2018, hitting .290/.326/.554 with 34 homers, 131 wRC+, and nearly-career-low 25.9 percent strikeout rate (24.0%, 2016).
The good times carried over into 2019 (.281/.216/.531, 29 homers, 114 wRC+, 27.8% strikeout rate), but things soon fell off a sharp cliff for the Puerto Rican product. Despite staying remarkably healthy throughout his career, the vulnerabilities in his game became magnified over time, as the story usually goes.
Always a free swinger (44.5% O-Swing rate is fourth in MLB since 2015; 18.5% whiff rate, third), Báez was attacked and exposed as such. Check out his swing-and-miss rates below, from 2018 and 2020.
Things didn’t improve on that front at all for Báez in 2021, with his whiff rate increasing from 31.9 percent in 2020 to 36.3 percent through his placement on the IL in early August.
Since then, Báez has turned a significant corner. We noted his batting line since returning to action on August 22 above. His 26.9% whiff rate over that span indicates an actual step out of hell for the uber-talented middle infielder.
The jury will remain out as to whether or not this uptick is to be trusted, but with free agency looming for Báez, the next four weeks will go a long way in determining what the future may hold for the player and the team.
The Mets would seem to have the inside track on securing Báez’s services moving forward based on his publicly granted request to reunite with his friend and countrymate Francisco Lindor in Flushing ahead of the trade deadline in July.
Obviously, an all-out, ball-out Queens tenure would have been ideal for Javy. It just hasn’t worked out as such. Though, with a groove being found just at the right time for all parties involved, the vision appears to be coming together.
“Sometimes I struggle a lot and it feels great to be hot at the plate right now,” he said. “Hopefully, I can keep it going.”
Along with his increased productivity, the wheels have officially begun turning in earnest on what a possible contract extension with the Mets may look like for Báez.
The Cubs reportedly offered Báez a $160-170 million (contract length unknown) ahead of the 2020 season. His value has taken quite a beating over that time, but — as we’ve all been witnesses to as of late — Báez is still very much a game-changer.
How this fits into the Mets’ plans moving forward is anyone’s guess, but the added value and electricity he’s added to the roster when healthy has been more than evident.
If New York can come away with Javy Báez for a five-year deal in the neighborhood of $25 million per season, one would assume everyone wins. Whether or not Báez and his representation have similar goals in mind is anyone’s guess.
One would imagine we’ll find that all out in due time.
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