Image via Anthony DiComo, MLB.com
It’s 2020. The Mets are clinging to a 2-1 lead, and Jeurys Familia jogs to the mound. He walks the lead-off hitter. That’s when the familiar feeling of panic sets in.
Yet, it wasn’t long ago when Familia led the league with 51 saves while posting an ERA of 2.55 in 2016 (2.20 ERA, 2.89 walks per nine innings, 94 saves from 2015 through 2016).
Back then Familia taking the mound brought a feeling of comfort and joy. We knew we would soon hear Gary shout, “And the Mets win the ball game!”.
While no one expects the 31-year-old hurler to match the stats from his years as one of MLB’s elite closers, it would be nice to see more consistency out of the $11.67 million elephant in the room.
Familia’s 2019 reunion with the Mets was a dumpster fire. His walk rate of 15.3% was in the second percentile of all MLB pitchers according to Statcast and his ERA was a bottom-scraping 5.70.
Despite the walks, Familia has shown glimmers of his old dominant self. In 2020, he was in the 89th percentile in exit velocity, 86th in hard-hit percentage, 92nd in fastball velocity, and 85th in barrel rate.
To be fair, Familia’s 3.71 ERA in 2020 was average for a bullpen arm and he eeked out a 2-0 record. It just felt lower to fans as we watched leads slip away, largely due to Familia’s 15.8% walk rate. His strikeout rate was also down to 7.8 percent per nine innings.
On Thursday, Familia pitched against the Nats in his first appearance of Spring Training. He looked a little rocky in the 30-pitch inning, walking two of the five batters he faced.
On the plus side, his velocity was strong. His sinker clocked in at 96, his four-seam at 97, and his splitter and slider at 92 MPH and 88 MPH, respectively. He managed to escape the inning by jamming Ryan Zimmerman and causing him to pop out to Luis Guillorme.
It’s easy to see what Familia needs to do to be effective this season. Find the strike zone more in order to limit the walks. If he gets the walk rate down to even 12 percent, we could see flashes of Familia in his prime.
While giving an ESPN interview during Thursday’s game, Mets team president Sandy Alderson explained one way the Mets are addressing Familia’s command issues. He said they’ve told him to “set up right down the middle and have his ball move.”
With better pitch location, Familia could be a difference-maker for the 2021 Mets. He’d be an arm to rely on early out of the bullpen, a huge need with Seth Lugo out until about mid-May.
As pitcher Grover Cleveland Alexander famously said, “Less than a foot made the difference between a hero and a bum.” Let’s see what Familia brings in the final year of his three-year deal. I, for one, am hoping for a hero.
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