Brandon Nimmo Ready for CF Challenge

On-base guru "grateful" for the opportunity to improve in centerfield

New York Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo receives his fair share of criticism. “Fourth outfielder” seems to be the most commonly used moniker bestowed on the 27-year-old former first-round draft pick (2011, 13th overall).

That’s a lazy narrative, plain and simple. Apparently, the Mets’ brain trust, as well as manager Luis Rojas and his staff, are wholeheartedly in agreement.

The Mets had the opportunity — multiple opportunities, in fact — to bring in a true centerfielder this winter. They chose to stick with their guy. That decision alone speaks volumes.

Passing on George Springer, who received $150 million over six years from Toronto, and forgoing the chance to employ the services of Jackie Bradley Jr., instead choosing to add depth around Nimmo in role cogs Kevin Pillar and Albert Almora leaves the kid who never played high school baseball as the Mets starting centerfielder heading into a big year.

Ya gotta believe, no?

Over the course of his five-year career, Nimmo’s been a fine outfielder, though more suited for the corners, per his defensive metrics.

Since 2016, he’s accumulated +8 outs above average in right and left field, combined. Before his not-ready-for-prime-time foray into centerfield in 2020, Nimmo had appeared in 103 games in center, never registering a negative OAA over that span (0 OAA, 2016; +1, 2017; +1, 2018; +1, 2019).

Over 44 games in centerfield in 2020, Nimmo put up -4 OAA — 115th out of 120 qualified MLB outfielders last season. For what it’s worth, Nimmo’s corner counterpart in Queens, Michael Conforto, ranked 118th among the same group with his -5 OAA in 2020.

Surprising? Yup. But it’s also revealing.

Maybe 2020 shouldn’t be looked upon as a truly viable source of developmental analysis. Over the course of his career, Conforto’s been a terrific right fielder, racking up +7 OAA at the position in 2019.

Clearly, the Mets don’t seem all too concerned.

Speaking with the team’s media corps after coming out of Tuesday’s 2-0 Grapefruit League win over the Marlins in Port St. Lucie, Nimmo expressed gratitude at the opportunity, but also for the chance to improve.

“They’ve conveyed to me that they have a lot of confidence in me, so that is very good,” he said. “For them to give me these opportunities, I am so grateful. And I’m gonna go work as hard as I can and make the adjustments. But that’s what I need; I need the opportunities. I need to make the adjustments, and now is the perfect time to do it.”

On the offensive side of the chalk, Nimmo’s been statistically elite.

Per FanGraphs, his 139 wRC+ since 2018 ranks 12th in the majors, his .397 on-base percentage over that span is good for eighth, and — despite a meandering .257 batting average — Nimmo’s .331 BABIP places him 23rd among the same group.

Even last season, a supposed “down year”, Nimmo’s 14.7% walk rate ranked in the 90th percentile in MLB (Statcast) and his 148 wRC+ was 23rd.

Is Brandon Nimmo gonna transform into Juan Soto at the plate overnight? No. Never.

But his offensive profile is utterly invaluable to the Mets and fits this roster so well that the team has no choice but to give him every opportunity to get four-to-five plate appearances a game.

Despite inconsistencies at the position in the past, centerfield appears to be the most team-friendly place to put Nimmo. Without the DH, the Mets have to get Dominic Smith at-bats, too; hence, Dom’s de facto designation as the team’s starting left fielder.

Contrary to popular opinion, this could actually work out fine. Have faith, friends.

Subscribe to the free email list or become a paid subscriber below! Just $2.50/month for the year to support independent journalism ($0.19 a game over a full season)!

We appreciate your support!